Eagle Harbor Web

Paul Freshwater Is Our 1999-2000 Grand Champion Forecaster

When Paul sent in his forecast I editorialized, "Paul gets the pessimist prize for his meagerly forecast of just 171"." Well the results are in (161.1") and Paul, who was so confident of his forecasting prowess that he made his reservation for the prize winner's Peregrine cruise before departing to the Golden State for a winter sojourn, now sits happily on his harborside deck across from my place, telescope in hand, watching for the arrival of his cruise ship.

Paul, hardly a "no shucks" kind of guy, attributes his success to skills developed over years of brand marketing for our favorite detergent company. "When I read all those 'big winter' press releases from NOAA last fall, I immediately recognized the 'over sell' tactics I had used so successfully in my career. I figured they were giving us the 'snow job'. It was obvious they were hiding something - the awful truth we were entering the autumnal of the legendary Keweenaw winters. My educated hunch was right, even optimistic when compared to the forecasts of my fellow forecasters, folks all obviously smitten by the NOAA PR."

Is he on to something (or in to something)? Heck, no one else was even close. Only distant second place winner Nancy Clarkson dared go below 200". Nancy thought 175" would be nice to read about as she sat by her Florida pool. What I characterized as the "more sanguine" forecasts of most of us, "a little more than our normal 20 feet (240"), turned out to be, well, "snow jobs". John Linbloom, who sweat out the contest period in steamy Singapore, is our "Heikka Lunta" trophy winner. John's 453" was laudable, but most off the mark. As for the trophy's namesake, I continue to believe that the obviously overrated Snow God has been smitten with the hip wiggling, Polynesian bred weather babe of the warm Pacific, La Nina, and bamboozled into spending our winters in warmer zones.

So ends another not too exciting year of snowfall forecasting by the troop of Internet junkies and wireless locals who know where the "Popeye Rock" is. (By the way, some mischievous person(s), perhaps old Heikka on his way out of town, painted out Popeye's smiling face from the rock late last fall. I expect it will reappear.) Was this year, like the two that proceeded it, part of trend, our winter's autumnal, or simply an aberration? Do you expect, or at least yearn for a winter snowfall like that of 1995-1996? Should we place this wonderful photo of that glorious winter in the Harbor's millennium time capsule - a relic from our pre-autumnal era? Or should all of us driven to despair by the sight of harbor beach parties in March, save it as a reminder that Keweenaw weather, especially winter weather in the lee of the big lake, will continue to surprise us? I'm saving the picture.

Thanks for being a part of this little bit of Harbor Web fun. We'll do it again. Think "big snow"!

Monthly Reports For 1999-2000 monthly commentary and reports on winners, near winners and the rest of us, go to: 99-00 Monthly Reports.